An impending nightmare erupts across the Middle East, as Saudi Arabia prepares a gigantic military operational offensive against the Houthis in Yemen, mobilizing more than one hundred thousand soldiers with the objective of retaking the strategic passage of Bab el-Mandeb, as Reuters reveals citing regional and Western officials.
This mammoth military operation is planned for implementation very soon and will be carried out primarily by Yemeni government forces under the direct oversight of Riyadh, while accompanied by relentless bombardments from the Royal Saudi Air Force, according to six sources familiar with the classified discussions.
Riyadh considers two scenarios of all-out assault on Yemen territory for control of the Bab el-Mandeb passage held by the Houthis
Saudi officials are weighing either a concentrated lethal assault around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, or a generalized military campaign with concurrent incursions and attacks across the regions of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al-Jawf.
The objective of the planned offensive is the total reversal of territorial gains achieved by the Houthis along the coast of the Red Sea and the restoration of control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and constitutes the most critical maritime artery between Asia and the Mediterranean.
This specific strait acquired terrifyingly greater importance, given that the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been blockaded during the military conflict with Iran.
Second reading... the true causes pushing Riyadh into a bloody armed conflict
The deeper cause lies in the fact that the Houthis, through continuous attacks on commercial vessels and infrastructure, have paralyzed international trade and directly threatened the economic and military supremacy of Riyadh across the region.
Behind the military mobilization hides the desperation of Saudi Arabia to halt the economic bleeding and strategic encirclement imposed upon it by the Houthis.
Backed by Iran, the group has transformed the Red Sea into a firing range, rendering unusable the maritime routes through which global trade and oil transit.
Riyadh recognizes that without complete control of Bab el-Mandeb, its own national security and oil exports remain under the ceaseless hostage of its adversaries, rendering any peace talks entirely futile.
The exact date of the major assault remains fluid, any prospect of peace negotiations is rejected
The precise timing for launching the attack has not yet been finalized, with sources from Reuters placing the onset of hostilities anywhere from a span of one week up to the period immediately following the midterm elections of the United States in early November.
Saudi and Western officials made clear to the news agency that Riyadh considers the resumption of peace negotiations with the Houthis completely impossible as long as the organization maintains control over the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The United States provides secret military intelligence and advisers, the role of Turkey and Pakistan
The United States actively assists war preparations by providing military advisers and critical intelligence, including data for the detection and targeting of hostile sites, in order to support the airstrikes of Saudi Arabia, according to a Western diplomat.
However, direct involvement of American forces in combat on the ground is not expected.
Turkey and Pakistan have already supplied military hardware for the operations of Saudi Arabia in Yemen.
Pakistan dispatched four cargo transport aircraft to Aden last month, loaded with air defense systems, light artillery, drones, and specialized anti-drone equipment, according to disclosures by a Pakistani official.
Pakistani advisers and Turkish drones are already on the front line, tens of thousands of Pakistani troops deployed at the border
Pakistani military advisers are already operating alongside their Saudi counterparts, while Turkish-manufactured drones purchased previously by Riyadh are already flying across the skies of Yemen.
Saudi Arabia simultaneously seeks to shield its vital oil infrastructure and other strategic sites from lethal missile and drone strikes launched by the Houthis.
Pakistan has deployed thirty to forty thousand soldiers on the territory of Saudi Arabia for the purpose of securing borders and assisting in intercepting missiles and drones, although Islamabad has taken no decision to deploy these forces directly to the battlefront inside Yemen, a Pakistani official told Reuters.
Deep divisions among local forces threaten the enterprise
Any ground military campaign will rely heavily on rival Yemeni factions that were supported by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during earlier phases of the civil war.
Intense internal disagreements and divisions among these forces remain a decisive and dangerous factor, at a time when Riyadh weighs the prospect of a wider assault.
The danger of conflagration across the entire region is now visible
An offensive of such gigantic scale will exert suffocating pressure on the Houthis.
Yet this specific organization has confronted comparable pressure in the past and managed to endure.
Furthermore, Saudi Arabia may find itself facing a terrifying response, not only from the group itself, but from its allies as well, including Iran and Shia armed organizations in Iraq, a reality threatening to unleash an uncontrollable regional war.
Nightmarish consequences and the potential for a global economic conflagration
If this massive operational assault is put into effect, the consequences will be total and terrifying for the entire planet.
A generalized conflagration in Yemen could immediately trigger retaliation from Iran and Shia militias in Iraq, causing an uncontrollable regional war in the Middle East.
Concurrently, the potential for a complete closure of the straits will trigger a new global shock in energy prices, keeping oil prices soaring, dismantling supply chains, and plunging the international economy into a new wave of destructive inflation.
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